Breaking Down the Election Results

The election results from Tuesday have people on both sides of the political spectrum talking. The Right and Left are debating if the election results are a referendum on President Obama.

I initially thought the election results demonstrated the voters have shown their dissatisfaction with the President's policies. However, after doing my research, I've come to the conclusion that you can't make that conclusion from this past Tuesday's election results. Here's what I found.

I looked at the three major elections covered Tuesday night. They were the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia and the election in New York Congressional District 23. I first had to ask myself if these states were traditionally blue or red states (traditionally Democratic or Republican) as this should play a large role in each respective election.

New Jersey is a traditional blue state where Democrats over the past two decades have enjoyed a 10 to 15 percent advantage over Republican opponents. I must admit a Republican win in this state is a very impressive one. In New Jersey, Chris Christie (R) defeated John Corzine (D) with 49% of the popular vote to Corzine's 45%. This is the only election from Tuesday that may resemble a referendum of Obama.

Virginia traditionally slightly favors Republicans over Democrats, making Virginia a red state (or really, a pink state). Over the past two decades, Republican candidates in Virginia have experienced only a 1 to 5 percent advantage at the polls. But if you look at the 2008 Presidential election, you will see that Virginia was one of the states Obama won (with 52.7% of the popular vote). Obama's win in Virginia in the 2008 Presidential election marked the first time in 44 years that a Democratic Presidential candidate has carried the state. Obama's win in Virginia was more of a referendum (of former President Bush) than Bob McDonnel's (R) Gubernatorial win in Virginia could be considered a referendum of President Obama. In essence, McDonnel should have won this election and did so in landslide fashion (winning 59% to 41%). The recent elections results show me Virginia is moving from a slightly red to swing state status.

Lastly there is the election in New York's 23rd congressional district. In this race, Bill Owens (D) defeated Doug Hoffman (Conservative Party) for New York's seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. This was a highly contested seat as the 23rd congressional district has been traditionally Republican since 1993. The only reason this seat was up for grabs was because President Obama appointed the sitting Congressman, John M. Hughes (R), as the Secretary of the Army leaving a vacancy.

New York is one of the most heavily fortified blue states in the nation. Democrats here enjoy an advantage of 20% at the polls. The fact that Secretary Hughes maintained this district for 16 years is very impressive and most likely a testament to the work he accomplished for New York. In one of the bluest of blue states, where Democratic candidates enjoy a 20% advantage in the polls (exception to Secretary Hughes), was it really a surprise that Bill Owens (D) won the race? He defeated his challenger with 52.03% of the popular vote (Doug Hoffman received 47.97% of the popular vote). The fact that Hoffman was so close to Owens does not necessarily hint towards a referendum of President Obama, but may mean the district kept some loyalty to the Republican party after Hughes vacated his seat.

Needless to say these three elections boast some referendum qualities, but the others do not. The data is so inconclusive, I wonder how some people can consider these elections a referendum on President Obama. I'm conservative and not even I can make that leap.

The point is, people have tried to read too much into this election and are making predictions as to the results of the 2010 midterm elections. Only time will tell what will happen and although I anticipate Republicans winning back some seats in Congress, using this election as a litmus test for President Obama's policies goes a bit too far in my opinion.